Ballistic Missile Defense and Northeast Asian Security: Views from Washington, Beijing, and Tokyo

Phase I: November 16-17, 2000, Washington, DC
Phase II: November 30-December 5, 2000, Monterey, California

Agenda

Phase I: Washington, DC

Thursday, November 16

Session I: Setting the Stage: The Strategic Goals, Objectives, and Priorities of China and Japan

Topic: Participants will construct a likely domestic political/economic agenda for Beijing and Tokyo during the period of concern. What domestic political/economic issues are most likely to occupy the three nations in the years ahead? What are the likely priorities? What major foreign and national security issues are likely to be faced by each? What are the most likely priorities? What tradeoffs might each be willing to make along the way? From the perspective of each, what are the best and worst things that could happen?

Session II: Forks in the Road: US BMD Architectures

Topic: What BMD architectures are under consideration for development and deployment by the US armed services? What are the technical capabilities and parameters of these systems? What is the relationship between different potential BMD architectures and existing international agreements or understandings?

Friday, November 17

Session III: Forks in the Road: The Regional Consequences of US BMD Options

Topic: Based upon the substance generated in the first two sessions, participants will assess the political, economic, and military impact of various BMD deployment modes. How would different potential BMD architectures affect the political/economic foreign policy agendas of China and Japan and their relations with the United States?

In regard to China specifically, how would deployment affect Chinese policies and actions in the following areas: (1) nuclear force modernization; (2) cooperation in ongoing Four-Party Talks on the implementation of the Agreed Framework for North Korea; (3) North Korea's missile development program and NK's missile proliferation activities; and (4) China's own missile and nuclear (non) proliferation activities.

In regard to Japan specifically, how would various deployment modes affect bilateral relations with both China and the United States? What issues would emerge for the Alliance between Japan and the United States? Which BMD deployment modes might strengthen the Alliance, and which might weaken it?

Session IV: The Way Ahead: Towards a US Policy

Topic: Based on discussions in previous sessions, participants will attempt to identify those modes of deployment that best meet US security interests while simultaneously reducing any negative impacts on relations between the major powers. What are the most probable effects of various deployment modes on US security and US Policy goals, including regional economic relations and regional nonproliferation interests? Would there be any indirect effects on US foreign policy goals in other regions and theaters of engagement, such as South Asia?

Phase II: US Policy and Chinese Strategic Views, Monterey, California

Friday, December 1

Session I: Definitions of the Security Environment: Chinese and US Views of Proliferation and the Regional Missile Threat

Issues for Discussion: Where do China and the United States agree on the issues of missile proliferation and missile threats? How do they differ? What are their preferred foreign policy and military options for dealing with these threats? Are there differences? If so, why do these differences exist? Where is the common ground?

Session II: US BMD Architectures

Issues for Discussion: What BMD architectures are under consideration for development and deployment by the US armed services? What are the primary technical capabilities and parameters of these systems, and in what way would they likely be deployed? Which systems are most favored by the US defense and policy community at the present time? What is the relationship between different potential BMD architectures and existing international agreements or understandings?

Session III-A: The Regional Consequences of US BMD Options

Issues for Discussion: Based upon the substance generated in the first two sessions, participants will assess the political, economic, and military impact of various BMD deployment modes under consideration in the United States. How would different potential BMD architectures affect the political/economic foreign policy agendas of China and its relations with the United States? How would deployment affect arms control and nonproliferation goals of both countries, both inside and outside the region? How would deployment affect PLA nuclear force modernization, and PRC cooperation in ongoing Four-Party Talks on the implementation of the Agreed Framework for North Korea? What might be the consequences for other regions such as South Asia?

Saturday, December 2

Session III-B: The Regional Consequences of US BMD Options

Issues for Discussion: 1. (Continuation of any unfinished subjects in Session III-A)

2. Based on earlier discussions, are there any major disagreements between the Chinese and US participants on the likely consequences of US BMD deployments? If so, what are the areas of disagreement and why? What assessments do the two sides have in common? How do these similarities and differences affect the policy prescriptions of each side in regard to BMD deployments?

Session IV: Assessment of Cooperative Solutions to the Problem

Issues for Discussion: What bilateral and multilateral cooperative solutions exist that would meet the security interests of both China and the United States? What kinds of political, diplomatic, economic, and military actions might help to build confidence and provide reassurance?

Phase II: US Policy and Japanese Strategic Views, Monterey, California

Monday, December 4

Session I: TMD and NMD as a Domestic Political Issue

Issues for Discussion: How does participation in development, building, and potential deployment of the navy theater-wide (NTW) system impact on Japan's domestic political equation? What constitutional issues are involved? Will it be necessary to adjust overall defense budget priorities? In what ways? Will the Japanese electorate support the program? Overall, will NTW be a divisive issue for Japanese politics? How will the government try to sell the idea to the Japanese people? What bureaucratic sectors will support the program? What bureaucratic sectors are likely to oppose? What tradeoffs are likely to be necessary? Overall, can the political complications be managed?

Session II: Japan's Relations With China

Issues for Discussion: What are the most likely outlines of different possible Chinese responses to a Japanese decision to jointly deploy a ballistic missile defense (BMD) system with the United States? What are the best and the worst responses that can be expected? Given these possible responses, will deployment make Japan more or less secure? In what specific ways will a joint US-Japanese BMD program increase or decrease the ability to manage relations with Beijing? If Tokyo decides to forgo deployment of NTW or another theater system, how will this decision impact bilateral relations with China?

Tuesday, December 5

Session III: TMD, NMD, the Security Alliance, and Relations With Washington

Issues for Discussion: Are the respective security assessments of Japan and the United States converging or diverging? How does Japan view US missile threat assessments, including the long-range strategic threats to the territorial United States? In respect to specific nuclear missile defense (NMD) systems, how would Japan view deployment of the current administration's system versus the potential future deployment of a boost-phase system in the Northeast Asian region? In regard to theater missile defenses (TMD), as Japan moves through research, development, building, and possible deployment of a TMD system, how might Japan's other alliance obligations be affected, including its obligations toward host nation support and the ongoing implementation of the joint defense cooperation guidelines? If Tokyo decides not to proceed with joint deployment of NTW or another theater system, how will this decision impact bilateral relations with the United States?